Thursday, Nov. 20, 2008, 6-8 pm PST
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As soon as A observes something which seems to him to be wrong, from which X is suffering, A talks it over with B, and A and B then propse to get a law passed to remedy the evil and help X. Their law always proposes to determine what C shall do for X, or in the better case, what A, B, and C shall do for X . . . . What I want to do is to look up C. I want to show you what manner of man he is. I call him the Forgotten Man. Perhaps the appellation is not strictly correct. He is the man who never is thought of . . . .
He works, he votes, generally he prays–but he always pays . . . .
–William Grahman Sumner, Yale University, 1883
Jeff and Tracy will interview Alan Hale, an economic forecaster from Elliott Wave International. We will be discussing the fact that America is NOT going through a recession with oncoming inflation, but rather America is looking down the barrel of deflation, and an unavoidable depression, and how Americans can prepare for it. I hope you can join us tomorrow, Thursday, Nov. 20 at 6 pm west coast time!
Also, plz feel free to download the following documents for your review as we chat with Mr. Hale. 081120_radiointerview
7 responses so far ↓
doctorbulldog // November 21, 2008 at 5:42 am
NC,
Alright. I see what he was saying. According to his theoretical model, there is a super-cyclic wave that has built up and is hitting the markets right now. Kind of like a rogue wave that builds up from the energy of smaller waves…
That being said, we will know if his theory has validity within about six months…
Cheers
No Compromises // November 21, 2008 at 5:42 pm
Yes! That is it! What I found completely fascinating was when Alan stated that free market cycles are basically fractals which are found in nature. Jeff and I were talking about free markets being a natural law just like gravity is a natural law which I thought Alan confirmed by stating that these cycles are fractals. That is so freakin’ cool!
Captain Trips // November 21, 2008 at 8:36 pm
Fractals eh ? Hmmm … forgive my skepticism, this theory MAY prove correct. It’s certainly very possible, maybe even LIKELY.
So, my question is why will we see in 6 months if this “proves out” ?
I wasn’t able to listen to the entire discussion, a three and a five year old y’know ? Was lucky to catch about 20 – 30 minutes of it LOL
doctorbulldog // November 21, 2008 at 9:52 pm
Captain Trips,
Because the market was over inflated to begin with, the deflation was predictable and inevitable.
Deflations are always dramatic and drop well below the nominal line. Currently, the nominal line should be about 5,000.
After a little hysteresis, the current free fall may stabilize and then return to a more natural “nominal” state, i.e. – minus the over inflation.
Anyway, that’s one of the working theories currently making the rounds.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1227251100.php
I gave out the six month figure because that would be two more quarters of reports – which would tell us if we are in a depression or just a recession.
To quote the article found here:
http://blog.ockhamresearch.com/index.php/2008/10/what-if-they-threw-a-depression-and-nobody-came
“Recessions—generally defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth—are not so rare and are generally considered a part of the business cycle. Depressions are recessions on steroids. They are generally much longer in duration, involve steep and unprecedented job losses and are accompanied by the phenomenon of deflation—when the price of goods and services actually falls for a sustained period of time.”
As most of you know, my Ph.D. is in Physics, and certainly not Economics.
That being said – Economics may not be my bailiwick; however, if you provide me with enough data and supply a couple of eye-candy graphs, everything starts making sense to me and I can start analyzing the seemingly chaotic patterns and making predictions based on that data.
It’s pretty much just basic wave theory physics using Fourier Transfer functions and a bit of the Uncertainty Principal.
I just need two more quarters of data to validate Mr. Hale’s Elliot Wave theory.
Cheers
doctorbulldog // November 21, 2008 at 11:41 pm
NC,
My previous comment on this thread is still “awaiting moderation.”
Cheers
No Compromises // November 22, 2008 at 7:30 am
Also, CT, you can download the show and I would encourage you to do so!
captain trips // November 24, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Physics eh ? Cool enough. I have a bachelors in chemistry. Fun and interesting stuff
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doctorbulldog // November 21, 2008 at 9:52 pm
As most of you know, my Ph.D. is in Physics, and certainly not Economics.
Like gas stations in rural Texas after 10 pm, comments are closed.